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Stock Game
10:19 PM EDT |
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| Market Volatility and Hedging/Speculating | News: Post by webmaster on Thu, 09 Oct 2008 @ 09:32 EDT This has been a historic period of time for investors. After the failure of several major financial companies, Congress initially blocked the $700 billion bailout package designed to buy up rotten mortgage assets. However, the resulting 778 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial average appeared to change the minds of many people in congress who did not want to see additional trillions of dollars disappear from the market and people’s retirement accounts. When the market declines did not stop after the bailout package was passed, the Federal Reserve made a 0.5% cut in interest rates yesterday that was coordinated with similar rate cuts by central banks around the world. This move was designed to get more money into the market and begin to thaw out the frozen credit markets. Investors did not appear to know what to make of the rate cuts, and they watched the market seesaw up and down the rest of the day with the Dow closing down 189.01 points (-2.00%).The reaction To the rate cuts was mixed in other markets as well. Japan’s stock market, the Nikkei closed down 0.5 percent earlier this morning (http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUST8461020081009). The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.9% while Russia’s Micex index rallied 17% (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=amt4Z0pF3J6M&refer=home). As we learned from the technology stock bubble a few years back, trying to identify the market bottom can be like trying to “catch a falling knife”. However, the number one rule for investors is “Buy Low and Sell High”, and stocks are definitely priced lower now than they have been for the last few years. In the future, we may look back on this as a great buying opportunity especially if you plan to be in the market for the long haul (20+ years).
However, it is extremely difficult to predict how the market will perform in the future, so if you plan to buy, you may want to look at hedging your investments. There are several ETFs that are designed to move in the opposite direction (inverse) of a particular index (see Pro Shares for a full listing http://www.proshares.com/funds). One example is UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS), which moves at twice the inverse of the S&P 500 (double short), so if the S&P500 went down by 1% for the day, SDS would be up 2% for the day. If you think that now is a good time to buy stocks, but you are worried about the possibility of the market declining further, you could buy a mutual fund or an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the S&P500 (like SPY) and then hedge your position with SDS. For example to hedge your potential gains or losses by 50% you could buy 100 shares of SPY at $100, which will cost $10,000 and then hedge your position by also purchasing 25 shares of SDS at $100, which will cost $2,500. If the S&P500 went up by 10% your shares of SPY would be worth $110 each for a total of $11,000 (gain of $1,000), but your shares of SDS would be worth $80 (down two times the inverse of the S&P500 change 2*10%=20%) for a total of $2,000 (loss of $500). Your net gain would be $500 or a 5% gain instead of 10%. If the S&P500 dropped 10% then your shares of SPY would be worth $90 for a total of $9,000 (loss of $1,000) and your shares of SDS would be worth $120 for a total of $3,000 (gain of $500). Your net loss would be $500. This hedging strategy works to limit the fluctuations in the market. However, if you were to buy these shares without also owning the underlying index, you would be speculating and your potential gain or loss would magnify the market fluctuations and increase the chances of appearing on the SmartStocks.com stock market game Top 100 and Bottom 100 rankings.
Disclaimer: Be careful with the Pro Shares ETFs as they use options to attain their desired results. Options are much more volatile and risky unless you also own the underlying index on which the ETF is based and are using this investment to hedge your position. SmartStocks.com's stock market game is provided as a virtual stock exchange for educational purposes and is not responsible in any way for losses incurred by individual investors. [ Read More ...
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* Market data and news provided by RediNews, Inc. and prices are delayed at least 15-20 minutes.
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